Spencer Schwellenbach’s performance this season has been nothing short of remarkable. Despite making only two starts, the 24-year-old right-hander has thrown 14 innings without allowing a single run. In fact, he hasn’t faced a runner in scoring position, boasts a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 14:1, and has a 60% groundball rate. Schwellenbach has allowed just 30 batted balls, none of which were barreled. According to Baseball Savant, he’s thrown six different pitches at least 10% of the time, with five of those pitches showing positive run values. His +9 pitching run value leads the league, demonstrating his dominance on the mound, even with a small sample size.
Schwellenbach’s excellence isn’t a recent development. Before the 2025 season began, he was already impressive in Grapefruit League play, striking out 28 batters in 21 innings and posting a 3.00 ERA. This followed a breakout rookie campaign in which he put up a 3.35 ERA, 3.42 SIERA, and 2.6 FanGraphs WAR over 21 starts. Prior to that, Schwellenbach was regarded as one of the top-five prospects in the Braves’ system, recording a 2.21 ERA and 3.01 FIP over 110 innings across Single-A, High-A, and Double-A in 2023-24. He bypassed Triple-A and made his big league debut in May 2024, where he quickly cemented himself as a key contributor to the rotation.
Now, with less than one full season in the majors, Schwellenbach has already become a crucial member of the Braves’ pitching staff. Atlanta’s rotation has been hit hard by injuries, with Spencer Strider recovering from elbow surgery and Reynaldo López out for most of the year. Chris Sale remains a reliable ace but is aging and injury-prone. Meanwhile, younger arms like AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep, Bryce Elder, and Grant Holmes are still developing. As the Braves try to rebound from a 2-8 start to the season, Schwellenbach’s consistent performance will be vital in solidifying the team’s pitching staff.
Given Schwellenbach’s early success, it might be time for Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos to consider an extension. While it may seem premature, the Braves have shown a willingness to lock up young talent early. Spencer Strider, for instance, was extended after just 20 big league starts in 2022, and Michael Harris II was offered a deal after just 71 games in 2022. Atlanta’s front office has been proactive in offering extensions to talented young players, including Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies. Locking up Schwellenbach now could provide financial security for him while securing more years of team control in the future.
However, the Braves have historically been more cautious when it comes to extending pitchers. Since 2006, they’ve only granted guaranteed multi-year contracts to starting pitchers three times—Strider, Julio Teheran, and Tim Hudson. Additionally, the Braves have seen several promising pitchers, like Ian Anderson, Michael Soroka, and Kyle Wright, struggle after strong starts. This track record may make them hesitant to commit to Schwellenbach just yet. If they do pursue an extension, they can look at recent comps, such as the four-year, $22.5 million deal signed by Cristopher Sánchez or the $45 million to $55 million contracts signed by Hunter Greene, Brayan Bello, and Brandon Pfaadt. A potential six-year deal worth around $9 million annually could be a reasonable starting point for negotiations, assuming Schwellenbach continues his dominant performance.
Should the Braves offer Schwellenbach an extension now, or would it be wiser to wait until he has a larger body of work? Fans and analysts alike will be watching closely as the young pitcher continues to impress on the mound.
