The St. Louis Cardinals find themselves in unfamiliar territory this offseason, focusing on developing young talent, reducing payroll, and adjusting their expectations for success beyond the 2025 season. These factors seem to suggest that the team will part ways with their biggest free agent, Paul Goldschmidt.
However, as reported by Derrick Goold of the *St. Louis Post-Dispatch*, the Cardinals have not entirely ruled out the possibility of bringing back the 2022 National League MVP. While there are significant hurdles to a reunion, Goold mentioned that a team official has not dismissed the idea entirely, depending on the offers Goldschmidt receives from other teams and whether he would be open to a deal within the Cardinals’ desired financial range.
Earlier, during the final series of the 2024 season, *The Athletic*’s Katie Woo reported that the Cardinals were planning to move on from Goldschmidt this offseason. This sentiment is widely shared within the baseball community, as reflected in both Woo’s and Goold’s reports. Still, as president of baseball operations John Mozeliak suggested when the team declined club options on Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Keynan Middleton, the Cardinals are aiming for maximum flexibility heading into the winter.
So, is there a scenario where bringing back Goldschmidt makes sense?
On the surface, a reunion appears unlikely. Beyond the payroll concerns, Goldschmidt’s return could block younger players like Alec Burleson, Luken Baker, or potentially some of the club’s catchers from playing first base in 2025. If the team’s priority is giving younger players more playing time, then Goldschmidt doesn’t seem to fit in.
It’s hard to imagine Goldschmidt taking on a role similar to Matt Carpenter’s in 2024, which could have made a reunion more plausible. Even after a down year, Goldschmidt is likely to want an everyday starting role at first base, preferably with a contending team.
However, could there be a scenario where a return is reasonable?
To explore this, consider a hypothetical flowchart. As things stand, it would take a series of decisions to make bringing Goldschmidt back a realistic possibility.
First, the Cardinals would likely need to trade one or two of their high-salary players—Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras. If the team moves one or both of these players, they could free up payroll space and perhaps have a little more flexibility to add a veteran bat like Goldschmidt. While this isn’t a move I would personally make, it could make a reunion more plausible.
Second, other teams would need to be less interested in Goldschmidt than he hopes. While I expect a contender will likely show interest, some teams may prioritize financial flexibility and internal options over signing Goldschmidt.
Even then, the Cardinals and Goldschmidt would have to reach an agreement on contract terms. Despite the team’s efforts to cut costs, it’s possible they could offer Goldschmidt a one-year deal in the $10 million to $15 million range.
If all these factors fall into place, a reunion with Goldschmidt could become a reality for the Cardinals. However, the odds of this happening seem low.
For now, it’s safest to assume Goldschmidt will be playing for another team in 2025, but there is a slim chance he could return to St. Louis, even if the circumstances that would make it happen are unlikely.
