The Chicago Cubs suffered a big blow last week when it was revealed that their ace left-hander Justin Steele would miss the rest of the season due to elbow surgery. However, the surgery didn’t take place until Friday. Ahead of the Cubs’ game against the Diamondbacks, manager Craig Counsell provided an update, sharing some encouraging news about Steele’s recovery.
According to MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian, the Cubs described Steele’s operation as a “revision repair” of his left elbow’s UCL—a less invasive alternative to Tommy John surgery, which involves a full ligament replacement. Counsell indicated that Steele’s recovery timeline is around one year, putting him on track to return in the early part of the 2026 season.
This is a welcome relief for both Steele and the Cubs, especially since Steele already underwent Tommy John surgery earlier in his career. A second Tommy John procedure often requires a longer recovery, sometimes pushing a player’s return well past 18 months, as seen with Jacob deGrom’s nearly 17-month layoff. Had Steele required that surgery again, he might not have returned until late 2026.
With Steele’s current prognosis, the Cubs can reasonably expect him to be part of their rotation next season. This may reduce their urgency to target top-tier starters like Framber Valdez, Zac Gallen, or Dylan Cease in free agency. Instead, the Cubs might opt to focus their resources on other priorities, such as pursuing a long-term deal with star outfielder Kyle Tucker.
In the short term, however, Steele’s absence does leave a gap in the Cubs’ rotation. While they’re currently looking to fill that internally, Colin Rea has stepped in and performed admirably, allowing just two runs across 8 1/3 innings in his last two starts. Top prospect Cade Horton has also been impressive in Triple-A, striking out 37.5% of batters faced, potentially giving the Cubs more confidence in their internal options heading into midseason.
Still, if rotation concerns grow, the Cubs may look to the trade market this summer. Names like Sandy Alcantara, Tyler Anderson, Seth Lugo, Chris Bassitt, and Michael Lorenzen could be available, depending on how their teams perform. Except for Alcantara, all are set to become free agents after 2025, which could align well with Chicago’s long-term pitching plans—especially with Steele expected back and other arms like Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, and Jameson Taillon already signed for next season.
